The four possible scenarios of Boris Johnson’s Brexit negotiations

Boris Johnson’s plan to enshrine a 2020 Brexit into law to demonstrate that he has no plans to extend the transition period has been met with a certain amount of eye-rolling in Brussels.

EU officials readily recall the British Prime Minister’s hard-charging start to the last round of Brexit negotiations which ended with Mr Johnson ditching his Irish border plan and accepting the EU’s idea of a special status for Northern Ireland de facto inside the EU single market.

The post-election rhetoric in London is seen in that vein. Theresa May also followed the same pattern, promising ‘frictionless’ trade outside the EU single market and customs union, but ultimately accepting the UK would follow many EU rules and join a temporary customs union.

“At this stage we take everything with a pinch of salt,” says one EU diplomat, noting that with his majority Mr Johnson is free to make laws – and remake them – as the circumstances require.

Mr Johnson’s does however provide one piece of clarity for the EU, which had harboured hopes in some quarters that a sizeable majority would open the door to extending transition for up to two years – at a cost of 10 billion euros or more a year. 

It seems clear now that there is no chance of this happening, which sets up an “October crunch” in which Mr Johnson will have to make a series of difficult choices, with a range of four possible outcomes, from a hard ‘WTO-rules’ exit to a fudged ‘transition’ that goes by another name.

You can read the article here: The four possible scenarios of Boris Johnson’s Brexit negotiations

Source: The Telegraph