China’s Belt and Road campaign could increase global trade by as much as 12 percent by halving trading costs for countries involved in the sprawling initiative, according to an economist at ING Groep NV.

The BRI will have a significant impact on transport and trade facilitation expenses, both of which are large factors in final trading costs, Joanna Konings, senior economist for international trade analysis with ING in Holland, said in a June 6 report.

“Trade between Asia and Europe, not including trade between EU countries, accounts for 28 percent of world trade, so making those trade flows easier has a large potential impact,” Konings said in the report. “The size of this impact depends on the sensitivity of trade to changes in relative costs.”

In her analysis, Konings considered three scenarios which vary the number of countries affected by the initiative, while assuming a 50 percent drop in costs. In the most conservative case, which includes only countries along the Eurasian economic corridor – China, Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus and Poland — the plan will boost global trade by 4 percent.

In the most optimistic scenario involving both BRI countries and their partners, nations in central Asia and eastern Europe would see the biggest increases. Trade for Russia, Kazakhstan, Poland, Nepal and Myanmar would rise by an estimated 35 percent to 45 percent, while China would see its trade jump by about 20 percent.

The most important variable, however, is how fast trading costs fall, and that is dependent on how long the BRI policy exists, according to Konings. Projects currently under construction are expected to be finished in the next five years, with more likely to be announced. As a result, costs will likely take anywhere from five to 10 years to fall, Konings wrote.

“If trade costs are slow to fall, effects on world trade growth will be small in any given year,” she said. However “significant falls in trade costs, even over a long period, could lead to large impacts on international trade.”

Source: Bloomberg

I am working in the wirld of customs, borders and global trade. I have done so the last 35 years. I have always been fascinated by the dynamic complexity of global trade as well as the underworld trying to exploit it.

We know today that development of trade is the best way to develop our societies. Trade creates jobs, growth and opportunities for people to rise from poverty. Trade fosters cooperation, friendships.

At the same time we also know that international cross-border crime acknowledge no borders.

Finding models to enable fair and inclusive world trade while at the same time fighting international crime is what makes me travel the world every day, week and year.

My work has taken me around the world, many times. I don’t like being away, not more than anybody else. But the world is out there. Waiting for advise. So I go. To help, to support and to fix things.

My profession has taken me to 169 countries to date. I have learned something new on every one of those trips. Travelling and working abroad is about learning.

Life is learning, learning is life.

As long as people need my advise I will continue to contribute. This is my my life, to save the world, a little bit. My way.

This photo from the G7 meeting in Canada is great. All these men listeneing to the only woman preee t. It is not difficult to see who people listen to in this group.

Chancellot Angela Merkel has for 13 years successfully lead the storrongest country and economy of Euorope. It is hard not to be impressed.