Tory Brexiteers offer peace terms to Theresa May

The Sunday Times today writes that Tory Brexiteers have delivered peace terms to Theresa May, outlining the price she must pay to secure their support for her Brexit deal in the crunch Commons showdown within days.

The European Research Group (ERG) of hardliners, led by Jacob Rees-Mogg, have drawn up “three tests” the government must meet if the prime minister hopes to win the vote due as early as this week.

In a significant intervention, eight ERG lawyers, chaired by veteran Eurosceptic Sir Bill Cash, have drawn up a document spelling out their demands, the clearest sign yet that they are prepared to fall into line.

Geoffrey Cox, the attorney-general, is seeking a new deal that would make clear that the Northern Ireland backstop, which locks the UK into a customs union with the EU, is only temporary.

In private talks with Cox the Brexiteers demanded a legally binding “mechanism” to escape the backstop, with a clear “exit route” and an unambiguous rewrite of the “language” in the government’s legal advice.

Crucially, the ERG’s new red lines are not prescriptive about how this is to be achieved and give Cox considerable leeway to thrash out a deal. By outlining the price of their support, they hope to give him greater ammunition to win concessions from the EU.

The plan has been drawn up in conjunction with Nigel Dodds, the Westminster leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). If May can secure the backing of the DUP and ERG, the deal will go through.

The document, seen by The Sunday Times, demands:

● A “clearly worded, legally binding, treaty-level clause which unambiguously overrides” the text of the withdrawal agreement

● Language that “must go beyond simply re-emphasising/re-interpreting the temporary nature of the backstop” and a change to Cox’s legal advice that it would “endure indefinitely”

● A “clear and unconditional route out of the backstop if trade talks fail”, which could mean “a time limit or a unilateral exit mechanism”.

In an interview with The Sunday Times, Michael Tomlinson, one of the eight members of Cash’s committee, said the group needs to see “black and white” text in “good time” before a vote so they can deliver their verdict.

But, in a boost for May, he made clear that the group does not want to dictate the exact mechanism. He said: “There is a spectrum and a range of options that the attorney-general has. I’m not going to say protocol good, codicil bad, letter very bad, because that would be prejudging it.”

Crucially, Tomlinson said that if the gang of eight approves Cox’s reworked deal, it will deliver the vast majority of Eurosceptics, including the two leaders of the ERG, Rees-Mogg and Steve Baker. “I think both Jacob and Steve would be equally persuaded if Bill says it works,” he said.

Michel Barnier, the chief EU negotiator, claimed on Friday that no progress had been made in the talks with Cox. But in an interview with German newspaper Die Welt this weekend he said the EU was “ready to give more guarantees, confirmation, clarification that [the] backstop is only temporary”.

This is expected to take the form of a “mutually agreed reservation to the withdrawal agreement”, deposited at the United Nations in New York to give it the status of an international treaty.

The second plan would be to provide more details on the functioning of article 20 of the Irish protocol in the withdrawal agreement, which allows either party to notify the other that the backstop is no longer needed. An arbitration process would be set up to police the deal.

Finally, the EU could also certify that one party to a treaty may terminate their agreement under the rules of the 1986 Vienna convention.

In other developments, The Sunday Times can reveal:

● No 10 is preparing for two new meaningful votes on the deal in the next fortnight in the belief that it will take “two heaves” to overturn the prior majority of 230 against it

● A Tory whip has attempted to drum up support for the deal by telling Eurosceptic MPs that they can oust May once the deal has passed

● Remainer cabinet ministers are plotting to share votes in a future leadership contest to ensure that Boris Johnson and other Brexiteer candidates are not on the final shortlist.

Source: The Sunday Times